Acetic acid: The market is strong and volatile

After entering the second quarter, the domestic acetic acid market gradually improved. Business monitoring data show that in April acetic acid prices rose and then fell, with the most concentrated production and sales in East China, for example, April 1 average daily price of 3100 yuan (ton price, the same below), to April 15 rose to 3450 yuan, after April 23 gradually fell, April 30 fell to 3250 yuan. However, the acetic acid price was still raised by 150 yuan in April, with an overall increase of 4.84%. Business acetic acid analysts believe that the current inventory pressure of acetic acid enterprises is small, the downstream construction situation is stable, the market trading atmosphere is better, and it is expected that the acetic acid market will continue to be strong in late April, showing a shock trend.

Dynamic transformation of supply and demand prices rise and fall

Liu Yuge, chief marketing officer of Hualu Hengsheng, who has studied the acetic acid market for a long time, pointed out that the price of acetic acid rose first and then fell in April. In the first half of April, affected by the maintenance of acetic acid equipment and the stocking up before the Qingming Festival, the market demand increased, and the acetic acid price has reached a low level, the customer procurement is active, and the market atmosphere is good, pushing the price to continue to rise. By late April, some acetic acid manufacturers had completed the overhaul, the device had been restored, and downstream customers had completed the stocking, and manufacturers were actively shipping in order to restrain the inventory from rising too fast, downstream customers were generally bearish on the future market, and the wait-and-see atmosphere was strong, and prices began to decline.

"Price movements have historically been linked to supply and demand shifts, and the opening and stopping of a factory can cause market volatility." Liu Yuge analyzed that from the supply side, in April, Henan Shunda, Dalian Hengli, Tianjin Alkali Plant, Jiangsu Sopp, Celanis, Shanghai Huayi and other acetic acid devices were alternately stopped and repaired, and the operating rate declined in the early part of the year, and gradually recovered in the late part of the year. From the demand side, the downstream operating rate rose and fell, which acetate industry operating rate increased, vinyl acetate, refined terephthalic acid (PTA) industry operating rate decreased, the operating rate of **, glycine and other industries changed little, most industries at the edge of profit and loss, just need to purchase, the overall demand for acetic acid remained stable.

Business acetic acid analysts said that in early and mid-April acetic acid prices rose strongly because acetic acid prices fell to a low level at the end of March, and some downstream buying intentions increased, while with the arrival of the Qingming holiday, considering the downstream replenishing demand, factory quotations intentionally pushed up; After returning from the Qingming holiday, the acetic acid factory has strong intention to raise prices, the demand for replenishment gradually increased, the inventory pressure of acetic acid manufacturers weakened, and then the Jiangsu Thorpe device failed to stop, the Tianalkali device fell negative, the acetic acid capacity utilization rate was significantly lower, the acetic acid quotation in various regions rose, the market trading atmosphere was positive, and the acetic acid price continued to rise. By late April, with the restoration of the maintenance device, the utilization rate of acetic acid capacity increased, the market supply increased, the supply side disappeared, and the downstream "May Day" holiday before the stock sentiment was weak, while the high-speed limit affected the shipment progress, the manufacturer's quotation was lowered.

Upstream price transmission downstream positive feedback

The upstream raw material of acetic acid is methanol, and its price trend forms price conduction to acetic acid. According to business statistics, as of April 30, the average price of domestic methanol market was 2651.67 yuan, an overall increase of 1.08% compared with April 1. Acetic anhydride, an important downstream of acetic acid, the price of the whole April also rose first and then fell, forming a positive feedback on acetic acid. According to the statistics of the business community, the quotation of acetic anhydride on April 30 was 5625.00 yuan, an increase of 2.51% from the beginning of the month.

Although the acetic acid price in April maintained the strong range since the beginning of this year, it was still at a one-year low, a two-year low and a three-year low. Business community commodity market analysis system shows that the current price of 3250 yuan acetic acid is still at the bottom of the market, and there is still upside in the later period, but the overall trend also depends on the economic environment and the cyclical changes in the chemical industry.

During the year, the supply is strong and the demand is weak

According to statistics, last year's production of Hualu Hengsheng (Jingzhou)1 million tons/year and Hengli Petrochemical 400,000 tons/year acetic acid production capacity will be fully released this year, and the overall supply increase is larger. From the demand side, domestic acetic acid demand is mainly concentrated in PTA, vinyl acetate, acetate and other industries, this year is expected to increase by about 600,000 tons, while considering the international market average annual 5% demand growth and export driven, acetic acid market is expected to achieve global dynamic balance.

Business acetic acid analysts believe that at present, the operating rate of acetic acid enterprises has returned to a high level, the supply side is sufficient, the "May Day" holiday before the enterprise actively discharging, the downstream stock sentiment is general, the market follow-up is limited, and the market trading atmosphere is weak. Considering that the "May Day" holiday high-speed speed limit affects enterprise shipments, it is expected that the acetic acid market or weak operation after the holiday, and the price fluctuates in a narrow range.

Liu Yuge believes that the acetic acid market will shock operation in May, on the one hand, the domestic peer manufacturers have no maintenance plan, the overall supply is more adequate; On the other hand, ethylene acetate, glycine and other industries started stable, PTA, acetate started to decline. In May, the acetic acid market will be strong and weak, the high temperature and rainy season may affect the start of the industry, and the price is expected to fluctuate