Adipic acid: long and short intertwined Market

After the May Day holiday, the international crude oil futures price first rose and then fell. The continuous role of market supply concerns is the main driving force to support the rise of oil prices. However, with Europe shelving the oil embargo against Russia and limited to the epidemic situation, the EIA lowered the crude oil demand expectation, and the strength of the US dollar put pressure on the oil price, and the international crude oil fell sharply. In the first week after the festival, driven by the rise of crude oil, the market price of domestic pure benzene showed an upward trend, and the listing price of Sinopec pure benzene increased twice after the festival. As the price of raw materials rose again, the price difference between adipic acid and pure benzene continued to narrow, the cost side support was strengthened, and the adipic acid Market stopped falling and stabilized. However, due to the subsequent decline of crude oil for two consecutive days, which affected the market trading mentality, the support of raw material cost side was afraid to be unstable, and the trading focus of adipic acid market was low.

In terms of supply, some adipic acid plants have been shut down since April, and the start-up of the supply side has declined. However, at the end of April, Haili Zibo opened another set of idle devices, and the Taihua device resumed restart in early May. At present, the start-up of one line is resumed, the load is slowly increasing, and the supply is expected to increase in May.

In terms of demand, the inflection point of the epidemic in Shanghai has initially appeared. With the promotion of resumption of work and production, the delivery and logistics conditions are gradually improving, and the demand is expected to have marginal growth. However, in the short term, the improvement of downstream operation is limited, superimposed with the constraints of the traditional off-season, the shipment pressure of adipic acid market remains, and the high inventory of individual factories still needs to be digested.

On the whole, in May, the adipic acid market was first boosted by the rise of raw materials, the stable and positive epidemic situation and other good news, and the market price tended to stop falling and stabilize. However, in the face of the downward adjustment of crude oil, the impact effect of the epidemic situation, the expected increase of supply, the insufficient downstream demand and other problems, the market was still under pressure in the short term. On the whole, it is expected that the domestic adipic acid market will operate in a small shock in May, and there is little room for both up and down, Continue to pay attention to the trend guidance of raw materials and the mitigation of the epidemic situation.